The heuristics a person adopts are informative of their credit and risk profiles. Are all heuristics created equal? Are various heuristics independent of each other? Do they have an identical impact on decision-making? What can we learn about people’s characteristics from their choice of heuristics? The answers to these questions are explained in the recent work led by Prof. Michael Zhang, the co-director of HSFRC, and CUHK researchers: Maggie Rong Hu, Xiaoyang Li, and Yang Shi. Using detailed peer-to-peer (P2P) investment data from Renrendai, a leading Chinese P2P lending platform, the paper makes the first attempt to uncover the relationship between two important numerological heuristics: the round-number heuristic and the lucky-number heuristic. Prof. Zhang and his co-authors show that people do not adopt heuristics randomly, and that specific heuristics affect how individuals make decisions differently. In addition, it appears that agents’ choice of heuristics reveals valuable information about their characteristics and preferences. This paper also examines the heterogeneities and interlacing of heuristics by establishing a framework to extract information about individuals’ characteristics and preferences from the heuristics they use. Their findings have wide application in real life. In addition to the context of P2P loan application and investment, they may be valuable in situations such as loan screening, credit ratings, and job interviews, among others.
人们具有的某些思维定式经常被用于了解他们的信用和风险状况。 是否所有思维定式都平等？ 各种思维定式是否彼此独立？ 它们对决策有相同的影响吗？ 我们可以从人们的选择的思维定式中学到什么呢？ 香港深圳联合金融研究中心联席主任张晓泉教授和香港中文大学研究人员Maggie Rong Hu, Xiaoyang Li和Yang Shi在最近的研究中阐述了这些问题的答案。此次研究采用来自中国领先的P2P贷款平台人人贷的投资数据，首次尝试揭示两种重要的数字思维定式–取整思维定式和幸运数思维定式–之间的关系。张教授和他的合著者表明，人们的思维定式不是随机产生的，特定的思维定式会影响个人做出不同的决策。此外，投资代理人的思维定式选择可以揭示有关其特征和偏好的有价值信息。本文通过建立一个框架来研究思维定式方法的异质性和隔行性，该框架可以从人们使用的思维定式方法中提取有关个人特征和偏好的信息。这次发现在各种现实生活场景中将具有广泛的用途。除了P2P贷款申请和投资的背景外，在诸如贷款筛选，信用评级和工作面试等场景下也有很高的应用价值。
Research paper: Are All Heuristics Created Equal? Evidence from P2P Investments